3rd September 2024
The TEG Road Transport Index experienced a notable three-point rise in August, moving from a baseline of 123.7 to 126.7 in the space of just 31 days. The 2.24% increase contrasts with August 2023, when the index fell.
The haulage sector saw a particularly strong rise, surging to a final index value of 125.2. Month-on-month, that equates to a 4.2-point (3.47%) increase. And year-on-year, haulage prices were 10.6 points (9.24%) higher than figures seen in August 2023. According to Richard Smith, MD of RHA, haulage costs have risen by 10% over the last 12 months, which may account for much of the annual price change.
Meanwhile, the courier index also rose. It grew by 1.8 points in August, to 128.0; a 1.42% increase. Annually, the courier index was up a full 4 points (3.22%).
While respective price rises differed, all index markers were up in August – an about turn not seen since September 2023.
Despite school holiday season, August experienced slow retail demand. This did little for store prices as businesses looked to clear excess stock.
The GfK Consumer Confidence Index remained stable in August, reinforcing the “wait-and-see” caution we saw in July. The government’s hints of a tough Budget in October – and tax rises – won’t have helped people’s mindsets.
The long-awaited summer weather never really set in. But given traffic around holiday hotspots, families made the most of what sun there was, indulging in familiar trips and activities.
Festivals and events continued throughout August, complete with a further bank holiday weekend for people to enjoy themselves. Still, while we made the most of what we had, the nation’s mood remained tentative.
Both diesel and petrol prices fell in August, continuing the previous two months’ downward trend. With fuel costs typically making up a third of operating costs for transport businesses, falling fuel costs are welcome news.
Diesel dropped to 147.79p per litre in August. This was a 2.56p fall on the July price, representing a 1.7% reduction. Compared to August 2023, when diesel was 151.07p per litre, the price was 3.28p lower last month.
Petrol pump prices also fell. They dropped by 2.11p in August, to 142.33p per litre – a 1.46% reduction. Again, year-on-year petrol prices also dropped. In August 2023, the petrol price per litre was 148.52p – 6.19p (4.16%) greater than current petrol prices.
It seems hard to imagine that, only two years ago, we saw both diesel and petrol prices above £1.80 per litre. With more stable supplies, at least for the moment, transport operators will hope the downward trend continues.
The SMMT reported a 2.6% increase in HGV registrations during Q2, reversing a Q1 decline.
11,469 new HGVs went into service, with rigids rising by 9.7%. But artic vehicle registrations in fact fell by 5.7%. Choice of top body types also suggested the market is now weighting rigids more heavily.
Registration of zero emissions HGVs rose by 30% in Q2, taking the sector’s market share from 0.4% in Q2 2023 to 0.6%. While a positive step towards Net Zero, the growth and share is nowhere near that of zero emissions car and van registrations.
Reeve’s announcements followed encouraging pledges to develop transport and energy grid infrastructure (necessary to power more commercial electric vehicles) in the King’s speech earlier in July.
Mike Hawes, SMMT chief executive, said: “The truck market’s return to growth after a slower start to the year demonstrates its robustness and resilience – particularly as overall uptake continues to keep pace with last year and the pent-up demand that fuelled volumes.”
With the UK Government suggesting “likely” tax increases in the October Budget, the transport sector waits to see what happens to fuel duty. The latest suggestion by lobby group FairFuelUK is that fuel duty could rise by 10p per litre.
FairFuelUK founder Howard Cox, said: “I have credible intelligence that the Treasury has virtually settled, through its internal economic modelling, on increasing fuel duty by 10p per litre.”
While fuel duty has been frozen by recent Conversative governments – and even cut by 5p per litre in March – many believe the Labour government will now increase fuel duty to help fund an economic black hole that Labour claim amounts to £22bn.
Logistics UK has urged Chancellor Rachel Reeves to keep fuel duty at its current rate, allowing the industry to play its part in driving economic recovery. RHA has also raised concerns, with Richard Smith, MD, stating that: “The cost of operating an HGV has increased by 10% over the past year.” He also called for the government to incentivise the uptake of low carbon fuels, such as HVO.
“Back in July, we had the Euros which, although England didn’t win, encouraged some spending. We’ve had Taylor Swift who, during this summer, generated an estimated £1bn for the UK economy.
However, retail demand overall hasn’t been great. We’ve just had news from the British Retail Consortium that shop prices are down. That appears to be stock clearance rather than genuine removal of inflation.
The TEG index for haulage has made a sharp rise compared with the last couple of years. From a logistics viewpoint, stock clearance still equals volume to be shifted and that will also be making space for early containers coming in from the Far East.”
Kirsten Tisdale - Senior Logistics and Supply Chain Consultant - Aricia Ltd
August saw a sharp rise in the TEG index. Many factors are at play.
Haulage companies have endured year-on-year cost increases of 10%. Even with the current fuel price falls, it’s far from surprising prices are on the rise.
Moving into autumn, it will be interesting to see what the currently level consumer confidence does, especially after the October Budget (which may introduce a fuel duty rise).
With retail demand currently slow, transport businesses may wish to continue paying the TEG Index close attention.
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