TEG Road Transport Price Index Report – November 2024
3rd December 2024
Index trends at a glance
The TEG Road Transport Index fell 0.1 point to 126.6 in November 2024. Representing a 0.08% drop, the month-on-month fall is relatively minor. Year-on-year, however, the overall index was 4.4 points higher than in November 2023.
Meanwhile, the haulage sector saw a 0.4-point index rise to 125.8 (representing 0.32% growth) in November. Again, the shift appears minor. However, compared to a year ago, the haulage price index was 10.4 points higher in November.
Conversely, the courier sector saw a minor price fall. The index dropped 0.5 points (0.39%) to 127.3. Given the courier index was 128.0 in November 2023, annual movement was also muted last month.
The shifts mirror what the transport sector has come to expect: In recent years, the TEG index has seen little movement during November.
Industry pulse
A recent run of low consumer confidence was always going to make November interesting.
Black Friday, which fell on November 29th, arrived late by historical standards, and the industry is still assessing its full impact. Andy Mulcahy, Strategy & Insight Director, IMRG reported the eCommerce market declined by 22.8% (YoY) in the week commencing 17 November, although he expected to see a skew the following week.
Various sources suggest this happened. MRI Software showed that as of 1pm on Black Friday, footfall across all UK retail destinations was 11.2% higher compared to the previous Friday. Furthermore, analysis by Alvarez and Marsal found that consumer enthusiasm for deals this Black Friday was at its highest level since 2020, with many shoppers searching for online deals before the actual day.
The GfK Consumer Confidence index also echoed a brighter picture for November, rising by three points. And finally, independent research commissioned by FedEx suggests there could be a 10.9% increase in deliveries this festive season. With several indicators suggesting we’re heading for a strong end to the year, the tail-end of 2024 seems bright.
Fuel watch
November saw a slight increase in fuel prices for both diesel and petrol. This may be an anomaly in the downward trend we’ve enjoyed since June, or a fresh upward shift. Time will tell.
Diesel prices rose by 1.34p per litre (0.96%) to 140.47p. The modest rise means diesel prices remain 11.64% – the equivalent of 18.5p – lower than they were this time last year.
Similarly, petrol prices rose slightly in November, to 134.8p per litre. This was a 0.84p (0.63%) upward move. Again, the picture remains far more positive than this time 12 months ago, when petrol prices were 10.74% (16.22p per litre) higher, at 151.02p.
The shift in this month’s fuel prices may reflect the nation’s reaction to fresh UK Budget announcements and, indeed, other geopolitical factors. It will be interesting to see what happens in December 2024.
New transport secretary urged to prioritise freight in growth strategy
Swindon South MP, Heidi Alexander, has superseded Louise Haigh as transport secretary, following Haigh’s recent resignation. According to Logistics UK, the change presents an opportunity for the government to prioritise freight in its vision for an integrated national transport strategy.
Logistics UK chief executive David Wells OBE said: “The vision for the Integrated National Transport Strategy, launched on 28 November, was not integrated as it did not include logistics, a major user and provider of our transport networks. Heidi Alexander as the new Secretary of State for Transport has a huge opportunity to address the decline in logistics productivity, drive growth and secure the sector’s place in the forthcoming Industrial Strategy, including through a genuinely integrated transport strategy that meets the needs of the travelling public while facilitating the efficient movement of freight.”
RHA MD Richard Smith also commented on the new government appointment: “On behalf of the RHA, I’d like to congratulate Heidi Alexander MP on her appointment as the new transport secretary. We look forward to working closely with her on the important issues facing our critical industry.
Logistics UK states that around 8% of the nation’s workforce operate in logistics, with the sector contributing £185 billon to the economy.
New ‘wise up, size up’ campaign highlights lorry bridge collisions
With a reported 1,532 bridges hit by lorries between 1 April 2023 and 31 March 2024, Network Rail has launched a campaign highlighting the issue, encouraging better haulage route planning. According to Network Rail, the collisions cost the rail industry £20m in delays, cancellations, and repairs. They no doubt cost hauliers in repairs to vehicles too.
The ‘wise up, size up’ campaign urges hauliers to check the heights of their vehicles and plan routes that avoid low bridges. A team of ‘bridge strike champions’ are also visiting haulage companies to raise awareness of the issue.
Thankfully, the campaign builds on a 4% downward trend during the last two years. But problem locations remain: Stuntney Road bridge in Ely took the dubious title of “most bashed bridge” during the reported period.
Martin Frobisher, Network Rail’s group safety and engineering director, said: “We’ve done a lot of work with transport partners to tackle bridge strikes and it’s encouraging to see this is paying off with a general downward trend in the number of incidents.
But with a strike every six hours there’s still much to do and we urge operators and drivers to properly plan their routes, know the height of their vehicles and be vigilant for road signs showing the height of bridges.”
Expert insight
“November is an interesting month as far as the TEG Road Transport Price Indices are concerned. There haven’t been any wild increases or decreases in either Courier or Haulier spot rates when moving from October to November since the TEG indices started, but it’s not a predictable month either. Or, at least, it hasn’t been so far, with the changing date of Black Friday overlaid by a variety of wider geopolitical and other events that have impacted logistics activity.”
Kirsten Tisdale - Senior Logistics and Supply Chain Consultant - Aricia Ltd
In Summary
November saw little movement in the overall TEG index, with stable haulage and courier prices underlying contributors. While stable prices could signal level demand, returning consumer confidence indicates a strong December lies ahead.
Fuel prices have increased a little, however we’re yet to understand whether this is a one-off for November, given the downward trend we’ve welcomed since early summer.
The economy remains relatively stable and, although geopolitical risks loom, FedEx’s research suggests there could be a bumper number of deliveries to make before 2024 closes out.
Share this post on LinkedIn
